Europe’s latest warning: Geert Wilders

Gert Wilders is a shock, but not an anomaly for Europe. In what is being dubbed the Trump movement of Dutch politics, this is the latest domino in a wave of far-right populism across Europe.

Whilst democracy is now acclimatising to populism, it is increasingly having to acclimatise to it being voted in as the largest party. As leader of the Party for Freedom, Wilders received 23.6 per cent and has doubled his party’s seat tally in a late surge that has surprised even him.

The Netherlands, a haven for moderate liberalism by comparison to other countries, is causing panic. If this can happen to the Netherlands, then the rise of Le Penn in France becomes more probable.

However, unlike Le Penn in France, or Meloni in Italy, Wilders has not compromised on incendiary language attacking Islam and Muslims, nor has he moderated his extremist positions. His proposals, such as banning mosques, are in complete breach of the Dutch constitution which has enshrined religious freedom, one only need think of the reformation wars going back to the 16th century.

Fortunately, the need to form coalitions to exercise power in the Dutch system should act as a constraint. Given his controversial nature (Wilders was arrested in the UK at Heathrow airport for defying an entry ban by the then labour home secretary at one point) and unconstitutional anti-Islam stance, it is unlikely any mainstream party should agree to serve under Wilders as premier. That said, excluding his party altogether would also risk looking undemocratic.

The secret of his success stems from the Dutch political establishment’s, known as the Dutch cartel,  habit of forming coalitions year in and year out - and is notoriously unpopular amongst the Dutch electorate. It is known for not representing the Dutch people, and is belied by scandals over welfare as well as stigmatising welfare claimants whilst the Netherlands is in a cost of living crisis. As with Trump, people see Wilders as an alternative to the political establishment.

Recurring themes have aligned the two political figures. Dutch migration levels are approaching the levels we saw in 2015 2016. This also bears resonance in UK/Italy terms. His anti-Islamic rhetoric, he insists, focuses more on the religion itself as well as the cultural aspect, rather than the race.

For years, most major parties have ruled out a coalition with Mr Wilders, but the results make it almost impossible to forma a government without him. In any case, the route to power for Wilders looks complicated.